Rookie running back leads Colts to 5-0 mark

Football Betting Lines

10/09/2007 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In case you didn't catch the name of the Indianapolis Colts running back who wears No. 36 on Sunday, it's Kenton Keith.

Keith is a first-year player out of New Mexico State who was thrust into the starting lineup as an injury replacement to starter Joseph Addai. Addai missed Sunday's 33-14 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at the RCA Dome because of a chest injury.

There will be no controversy at the position when Addai returns, but Keith certainly made an impression that will last throughout the upcoming week. Playing behind one of the most cohesive offensive lines in the game, Keith had a career day with 121 yards and a pair of touchdowns on 28 carries to keep Tampa Bay's defense off balance.

"I didn't think it was going to turn out the way it today," Keith said after Sunday's win which kept the Colts unbeaten. "I figured I was going to play good, because I wasn't nervous or anything, but I didn't expect a hundred- something yards and two touchdowns."

Keith, who spent the previous four years playing up north for the Saskatchewan Rough Riders of the CFL, noted that starting had been a norm for him until the Colts added the 5-11, 210-pound back to their roster during the offseason. Keith also caught five passes for 37 yards on Sunday, one week after rushing for 80 yards on 10 carries in a victory over the Denver Broncos.

The 27-year-old Keith helped head coach Tony Dungy solve his temporary backfield problem, but won't be able to help ease the pain of being without fallen wideout and future Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, who missed the game with a knee injury. Harrison, an eight-time Pro Bowl selection, went down early in last week's victory over the Broncos.

Quarterback Peyton Manning didn't miss a beat without his main weapon, though, and simply used the rest of the roster to down the Buccaneers. Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne is healthy and recorded 62 yards and a score on seven catches. Tight end Dallas Clark also caught seven passes and finished with 49 yards and a score, while rookie slot receiver Anthony Gonzalez chipped in a game-high 71 yards on seven receptions.

Indy's offense was on point and outgained Tampa Bay, 400-177. Manning completed 29 of his 37 attempts for 253 yards with a pair of TD passes and an interception against Tampa Bay's top-ranked scoring defense. The Bucs entered the game on a three-game winning streak.

Manning was able to get the job done again with what he had to work with in helping the Colts to their third straight 5-0 start and fourth in five seasons. Indianapolis, which started 9-0 last season, 13-0 in 2005 and 5-0 in 2003, extended its home winning streak to 12 games to break the franchise record of 11 established in 2004-2005.

"Considering the circumstances, it was a very special win," Manning said.

The circumstances may get a little easier the next time Indy plays, which will be Monday, October 22 at Jacksonville. The Colts will rest with an upcoming bye week and are currently one of four remaining unbeaten teams in the NFL. They also lead the AFC South over Jacksonville and Tennessee, both of whom are 3-1.

DEFENSE SHOWS WHO'S BOSS

I'm not sure if Tampa Bay head coach Jon Gruden initially planned on running the ball against the Colts this Sunday. But if he did, then he might as well burn that game plan, because it wouldn't have worked even at the high-school level.

Tampa Bay, minus starting running back Cadillac Williams due to injury, was forced to use a tandem approach in the backfield with Michael Pittman and Earnest Graham. Pittman carried the ball five times for minus-1 yard, while Graham led the Bucs with just 11 yards on six carries.

Indy completely shut down the running game and held the Buccaneers to 177 total yards of offense.

"That's what we came out there to do," Colts defensive end Raheem Brock said after the win. "We did a great job and we'll go into our bye week 5-0. Everybody was executing pretty good. Everybody was flying around, making plays, and (the defense) did a great job."

The Colts dominated on defense even without starting outside linebackers Rob Morris and Freddy Keiaho and Pro Bowl safety Bob Sanders. Sanders, one of the best in the game, should be at full strength for Jacksonville after sitting out with injured ribs.

UP NEXT: REST BEFORE JACKSONVILLE

The unbeaten Colts will take a much-needed breather this upcoming week before returning to action on October 22 for a Monday night game against the AFC South-rival Jacksonville Jaguars.

"It's time to rest," Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney said. "Some guys take their mind completely off football. I know I will - just take a deep breath, then rev it back up. We have a long, hard stretch of games coming up."

The Colts are 9-3 all-time against the Jaguars and split the 2006 season series. Indianapolis won the first encounter by a 21-14 score, then suffered a 44-17 shellacking in the second matchup.

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College Football Betting Tips From a Pro

While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.

Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.

The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.

What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.

These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.

College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.

Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.

Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.

Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.

I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.

Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.

It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.

As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.

Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.

To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.

Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.