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03/08/2010 - Ponte Vedra Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The grandfathered wedges and irons used by Phil Mickelson and others this season will no longer be allowed on the PGA Tour after the company that makes them agreed to waive its rights from a decades-old lawsuit.
The waiver, announced Monday, means Ping's controversial Eye2 clubs will no longer be exempted from the new PGA Tour regulations banning clubs with square grooves.
"We all believe it is in the best interests of golf," John Solheim, chairman and chief executive of Ping, said in a release
The waiver goes into effect March 29 and will apply to the PGA, Champions and Nationwide Tours. Following a request from the United States Golf Association, the waiver will also be applied to the U.S. Open.
"John Solheim and Ping had a terrific opportunity to do something very positive and significant for the game of golf and we very much appreciate his willingness to take this action," PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem.
Because of a 20-year-old settlement between Ping and the USGA, all EYE2 wedges made before April 1990 were exempted from the new rule that required players to switch to clubs with V-shaped grooves beginning this season.
The grooves regulation was implemented by the USGA to make it harder for players to control the ball out of the rough.
Mickelson carried an Eye2 wedge in his bag at Torrey Pines in January, prompting tour veteran Scott McCarron to accuse him of cheating. Other players, including John Daly, have also taken advantage of the loophole.
The waiver does not take all EYE2 irons and wedges out of competition. Clubs with grooves that conform to the new regulations will still be allowed. Ping said it has made EYE2 clubs with conforming grooves for several players.
Solheim said his company considered several solutions to the issue since meeting with USGA officials last month, but that waivers were the most appropriate way to honor the original competition agreements it had with the PGA Tour and USGA.
"The problem is solved on the PGA Tour and the integrity of the original agreements is unaffected," Solheim said, noting that the EYE2 clubs would still be allowed in amateur events played under USGA rules.
The USGA said it will conduct a forum later this year to discuss ways to improve the equipment rulemaking process.
<< Pitt, Texas, Maryland and Illinois to play in Coaches vs. Cancer
Princeton, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Pittsburgh, Texas, Maryland and Illinois will
open the 2010-11 basketball season by participating in the Coaches vs. Cancer
Classic.
Those teams will serve as the four regional round hosts for the event.
<< Spurs' Parker won't need surgery for broken hand
San Antonio, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - San Antonio Spurs guard Tony Parker won't
need surgery for the broken bone in his right hand.
Parker was examined Monday by Dr. David Green and the initial diagnosis of a
non-displaced stable fracture o
<< Kansas returns to top spot in hoops poll
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Kansas is back atop the men's basketball
world, taking the top spot in the Associated Press poll for the third time
this season.
The Jayhawks (29-2) were the preseason No. 1 and spent the first eig
<< Stewart leads NHL's Three Stars
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Colorado Avalanche right wing Chris Stewart,
Tampa Bay Lightning center Steven Stamkos and Florida Panthers defenseman
Bryan McCabe have been named the NHL's 'Three Stars' for the week ending March
7.
Steelers sign WR Battle, S Allen >>
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday signed
wide receiver Arnaz Battle and safety Will Allen to three-year contracts.
Battle spent seven seasons with San Francisco, which selected the Notre Dame
product
Union sign Colombian midfielder Torres >>
Chester, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Philadelphia Union signed Colombian
midfielder Roger Torres on loan from America de Cali of the Columbian First
Division, the Major League Soccer club announced on Monday.
"We're very excited t
Rams add DT Robbins >>
St. Louis, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Rams on Monday bolstered their
defense with the signing of tackle Fred Robbins. Per club policy, terms of the
deal were not disclosed.
Robbins, 32, spent the last six years of his career with
Lions re-sign TE Heller >>
Allen Park, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Detroit Lions on Monday re-signed tight
end Will Heller to a three-year contract.
Heller played in all 16 games (nine starts) last season, his first with the
Lions after spending the three previous y
LaDainian Tomlinson Favorite to be 2007 NFL MVP
With the first NFL preseason game less than two weeks away, it is time to start thinking about football once again at MySportsbook.com. Reigning NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson is currently the 5-1 co-favorite to win the award again alongside Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning.
This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone after his all out assault on the record books last season. For those suffering from amnesia or were under a rock last football season, all L.T. did last season was set the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (28), total touchdowns (31) and total points scored (186) to go along with his 1815 rushing yards and 508 receiving yards. At 6-1, Tom Brady is next in line which isn’t surprising considering all of the firepower the Pats added over the off-season. With the addition of Randy Moss, Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker; it would be quite difficult for Brady’s numbers not to improve from last years 3529 yards and 24 touchdowns. There appears to be some decent value in Drew Bees at 10-1 considering he probably would have won the award last year if it wasn’t for L.T.’s record breaking season.
There is no reason to think the Saints will come back to earth this season and playing in a weak NFC, they should have as good a shot as any to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl. At 15-1, Donovan McNabb could also be worth a look. Remember, many felt he was the MVP of the first half of the season before going down with a season ending injury. Reportedly, he is in great shape and well ahead of schedule to return to form. Also, he could have some added motivation to put up big numbers this season with the Eagles using their first pick in the draft on McNabb’s future successor Kevin Kolb.
Be sure to log on to MySportsbook.com to check out the complete odds for NFL MVP as well as all of the new football related futures. With the popularity of NFL futures, these betting lines will be sure to change as the money comes in; get the early sports lines now.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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