Inter Milan brass taking massive gamble with Balotelli sale

Soccer Betting Lines

07/26/2010 - Toronto, Canada (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - With reports surfacing that Inter Milan are prepared to transfer Mario Balotelli to Manchester City for a fee in the range of 30 million Euros, the young star's tumultuous time with the club seems to be at an end.

The 19-year-old Balotelli is a supremely gifted player with the ability to use his strength and quickness to elude opponents and create quality scoring opportunities. Even at a young age, the skill set the young Italian possesses is of an elite nature.

Should Balotelli continue to progress, he could eventually become one of the best players in the world, a factor that makes his sale a reluctant one for Inter. It should be noted that Inter does not need to sell Balotelli at this point as a result of any financial constraints - they're choosing to because of issues with his character.

While Balotelli does possess top-level skill, his mental stability and petulant behavior has caused concerns in Milan, so much so that some fellow teammates reportedly want to see him removed from the team's roster. Spats with Inter fans and former coach Jose Mourinho are well-documented, while his appearance on national television wearing heated rival AC Milan's jersey did not sit well with Inter supporters, to say the least.

So intense were his issues with Mourinho that he was benched for long stretches throughout the season, the last for throwing his jersey on the ground after fans booed him for a poor display in a Champions League match against Barcelona.

Balotelli is without question lacking maturity at this point in his career, yet it didn't stop some of the top clubs in Europe from inquiring about his services. The growing pains for Balotelli have been a constant throughout his career, but were not surprising given that he's been under the microscope since the age of 17.

His conflicts with coaches and fellow players are alarming, but will likely lessen once Balotelli matures in age and is taken under the wing by an established soccer mind. Balotelli's former Inter coach and current Manchester boss Roberto Mancini seems adept at taking on such a challenge and it's one that could reap huge benefits for both Balotelli and Mancini.

Considering his age, the risk of bringing in Balotelli from a Manchester City point-of-view is minimal, and the club's new owners have declared they'll spend whatever money is necessary to compete in the English Premier League, along with contending in other European competitions.

The risk is much greater for Inter, considering the club's reputation in parts of Italy. With a roster boasting very few Italian players, the sale of Balotelli will likely not sit well with purists who believe Italian clubs should groom their own home-grown players over foreigners. While the sale amount of 30 million Euros is nothing to groan about, if Balotelli is able to put both his mental and physical game together, he will likely be worth double that amount in a few short years.

With Rafa Benitez taking over the club from departed manager Jose Mourinho, the opportunity is there for a fresh start for Balotelli at Inter. The Spanish manager has the chance to instill a vote of confidence in the young star that he felt was waning with Mourinho. Whether or not Balotelli has burned too many bridges over the last few seasons to make that possibility a reality is questionable at this point. One thing that's not in question is Balotelli's skill set, but whether he takes advantage of such talent is squarely on the shoulders of the young Italian himself.

It's said that patience is a virtue and, in the case of Balotelli, it could prove either a catastrophic risk or magnificent judgement. At this point, it seems to be a 50-50 proposition but one that could see Manchester City benefit much more than Inter Milan, should the sale go through.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.