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06/30/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If the last few years of NHL free agency have taught us anything, it's that the best talent doesn't last long on the open market.
General managers have been looking ahead to July 1 for months and if they don't know who to target by now, they're probably not going to help their teams out very much when the free agent market opens Thursday at noon.
Of course, the biggest name on the market is sniper Ilya Kovalchuk, but his asking price eliminates most NHL teams right off the bat.
The Russian winger was dealt from Atlanta to New Jersey at last year's trade deadline, and although the Devils are still very much in the mix to sign Kovalchuk, the 27-year-old seems to have a West Coast address waiting for him in the near future.
The Los Angeles Kings appear to be leading the pack in the Kovalchuk chase, with fellow SoCal residents Anaheim also in the mix.
The Kings are still a very young team with plenty of salary cap room, but after making the postseason last year, LA also feels that it's just one big piece away from challenging for a Stanley Cup title. Although Kovalchuk has not achieved anything in the playoffs so far, there is little doubt that he is a pure goal-scorer.
Anaheim, meanwhile, has some extra cap space to work with since defenseman Scott Niedermayer announced his retirement last week.
What hurts the Devils in the bidding war for Kovalchuk is how his stint with New Jersey this year ended. Kovalchuk filled up the stat sheet for New Jersey, recording 27 points in 27 regular-season games following the trade. He also added six points in five playoff games, but the Devils were still bounced out by Philadelphia in the opening round. It wasn't exactly the best trial run for Kovalchuk and the Devs.
Of course, the knock on this year's free agent class is that after Kovalchuk, there is a big drop-off in talent. The next-best available forwards are Ray Whitney, Olli Jokinen, Paul Kariya and Alexander Frolov and it appears Frolov is leaning towards returning to Russia to play in the KHL.
Also, the Dallas Stars announced earlier this week that they won't be re- signing Mike Modano, but the future Hall of Famer hasn't decided if he will play elsewhere. Not to mention, at 40 years old, Modano doesn't seem to have a whole lot left in the tank anyway.
But, outside of the forward realm, there are some big-ticket items to be had on the market. Defenseman Sergei Gonchar may not be returning to Pittsburgh and just about every team has a need for the two-way talent that the Russian blueliner possesses.
Dan Hamhuis and Paul Martin, who played last year for Nashville and New Jersey, respectively, are also solid puck-moving defensemen and will likely be seeking new destinations.
Hamhuis is an interesting case since his rights have been traded twice in the last few weeks, but he has still yet to sign and may want to test the open market. Philadelphia, which acquired Hamhuis' rights from Nashville, couldn't work out a deal with the blueliner and decided to ship him across state to the Penguins. So far, Pittsburgh hasn't been able to sign Hamhuis either and it appears likely that the defenseman is aiming to get the most out of his free- agency status.
There are also several options for teams looking for a starting goaltender. The San Jose Sharks have decided not to re-sign Evgeni Nabokov, and Marty Turco won't be returning to Dallas. Both goalies are 34 years old, but that doesn't mean they can't still hold down a starting job. Nabokov is especially intriguing since, unlike Turco, he is coming off another strong regular season.
Other available goaltenders who have been starters in the past are Jose Theodore, Chris Mason and Martin Biron.
It's still anybody's guess where these players will actually wind up, but it would be a surprise if most of them weren't snatched up before Monday rolls around.
<< Brind'Amour announces his retirement
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Carolina Hurricanes center Rod Brind'Amour
called it a career on Wednesday, announcing his retirement after a 20-plus-
year NHL career.
Brind'Amour, who turns 40 in August, had one year left on th
<< L.A. coach Arena to lead MLS All-Stars
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Galaxy coach Bruce Arena will lead
the Major League Soccer All-Stars against 2009 English Premier League champion
Manchester United in the 2010 All-Star Game, it was announced on Wednesday.
Arena
<< Rays activate Kapler
Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Tampa Bay Rays have activated outfielder
Gabe Kapler from the 15-day disabled list on Wednesday.
Kapler had been sidelined since June 12 with a right hip flexor strain. In 38
games this season, he is ba
<< Oilers, Coyotes swap players
Edmonton, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Edmonton Oilers on Wednesday acquired
defenseman Jim Vandermeer from the Phoenix Coyotes in exchange for forward
Patrick O'Sullivan.
Vandermeer, 30, registered four goals and 12 points in 62
Bruce's homer lifts Reds over Halladay, Phillies >>
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jay Bruce hit a two-run homer in the bottom
of the eighth inning, and the Cincinnati Reds held on for a 4-3 win over the
Philadelphia Phillies in the rubber match of three-game series at Great
America
Penn State, Syracuse to meet at Meadowlands in 2013 >>
State College, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Penn State and Syracuse have announced
they will renew their college football rivalry in 2013 at the New Meadowlands
Stadium.
The game will take place on August 31, 2013, and the schools are also clos
Rachel Alexandra safely arrives at Saratoga >>
Saratoga Springs, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Wednesday morning saw the safe
arrival of defending Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra at Saratoga Race
Course from Churchill Downs. The four-year-old filly was accompanied by
trainer
Morneau and Twins down Detroit >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Justin Morneau finished 2-for-4 with a
homer and two RBI as Minnesota dispatched Detroit, 5-1, in the rubber match of
a three-game set from Target Field.
Orlando Hudson and Delmon Young also knocked i
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.
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